I Got the Power
Growing up as a kid, the 9V battery at 5Wh of power was the choice for premium portable devices like the 1978 Coleco Electronic Quarterback. Price was at a premium, but not to the point where rechargeable 9V batteries were heavily adopted. Use and dispose was the predominant consumer behavior for batteries. The next wave of electric vehicles (EV) will have an average battery size close to 100kWh, the equivalent of 20K 9V batteries, with the ability to power external devices including full AC powered gaming systems.
Image: Coleco Electronic Quarterback handheld, Hyundai
This bi-directional charging capability will define new consumer behavior and how the EV battery may one day become the center of personal, non-disposable energy. 100kWh EV battery can provide power to a home (893 kWh per month US home), mobile business, and transportation with capacity to spare. Building consumer confidence and trust will be a journey indeed.
Image: Clean Energy Reviews, Personal Estimates
Image: Personal Estimates
On-demand energy enabled by bi-directional EV charging has a few options. Vehicle to home (V2H) and the ability for the EV to be a home backup power generator: a feature that is marketed widely by EV manufacturers and excites many people. Vehicle to load (V2L) enables people to power regular electronic devices plugged into their EV. Vehicle to grid (V2G) or vehicle grid integration (VGI) is the ability for EV owners to supply energy back to the utility grid for monetary compensation. Utilities are investing in VGI as a way to respond to variable demand and reduce the need to build capacity (e.g. peaker plants). For example, California approved VGI pilots in PG&E footprint as of May 2022. Three assertions that need further validation:
VGI needs to be a closed loop system (e.g. Utrecht Netherlands, Ford + Sunrun + PGE, GM + Schneider Electric, Volkswagen Group VGI, SMUD municipality fleet) to successfully balance demand variability, inventory, and capacity
DER aggregators must have enough combined power to deliver predictable baseload (must-have) and not spike emergency (nice-to-have) to make attractive revenue in a wholesale market given FERC 2222 (ISO, IOU and PUC regulated markets)
Demand forecasting, inventory and capacity optimization, and dynamic pricing are most compelling software use cases; static pricing (e.g. tariffs, rate tables, incentives, and penalties) and decision heuristics do not respond to variability
The Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) is driving residential EV incentives and commercial fleet programs led by Paul Lau, CEO of SMUD. The Zeus EV fleet program represents a promising closed loop system that looks to drive decarbonization along with local employment and air quality improvements. SMUD is also partnering with BMW, Ford, and GM on a managed EV charging pilot as another step towards its goal of 75,000 zero-emission vehicles by 2025. SMUD and their Oracle Opower deployment looks to provide applications that impact both consumer behavior change and utility operations.
Image: Closed loop EV fleet system
Public charging will get a boost from the recent Inflation Reduction Act of 2022; 50K charging stations in the US and growing. Tesla continues its supercharger network expansion, with the largest project happening in central California. The recent passing of submetering, the ability to separate EV charging and billing from the main utility meter, should provide more transparency to a system needing more consumer trust.
Image: Google Maps
One of the more comprehensive electrify everything reports gives a glimpse of the growing ecosystem around EVs and the energy grid. But it will come down to each person feeling the same thing: I got the power.